A significant proportion of German companies expect wages to decline over the next five years as a result of using artificial intelligence, particularly for workers with less professional experience and no higher education degree, according to a survey published by Munich-based economic research institute ifo on Wednesday.
Around half of the companies already using AI expect wages to fall for employees with less than five years of professional experience. Among workers with at least five years of experience, around 40% expect wage declines. At the same time, depending on employees’ qualifications, between one-third and one-half of companies expect wages to remain unchanged.
“According to companies, artificial intelligence will not affect the wages of all employees in the same way,” said Anna Ruffert, a researcher at the ifo Institute.
She added that companies are most likely to expect wage declines among less experienced workers.
By sector, service companies most frequently expect wages to fall. Among workers with less than five years of professional experience, 53.3% expect lower wages, compared with 44.2% for those with at least five years of experience. In trade, the figures are 47.9% and 41.3%, respectively, while in manufacturing they are 46.5% and 38.9%. Among construction companies, 39% expect wage declines for less experienced workers and 31.3% for those with at least five years of experience.
Workers with higher education degrees, however, are more likely to see wage increases, particularly if they have longer professional experience.
Among such employees, 26% of AI-using companies expect a positive effect on wages for those with at least five years of professional experience, while 16.3% expect wage increases for those with less experience. For workers without a higher education degree and with limited professional experience, the figure is just 5.9%.
Companies in the construction sector are particularly likely to expect positive wage effects: 24% anticipate wage increases for higher-educated workers with less professional experience, rising to 29.8% for those with at least five years of experience. In services, the figures are 14.9% and 27.3%, respectively; in trade, 15.9% and 24.9%; and in manufacturing, 15.6% and 24.2%.
The ifo survey is based on data from a business survey conducted in June among more than 3,000 German companies that already use artificial intelligence.
(MTI)
