The ECB’s October 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey shows mostly stable trends in inflation, income, spending, economic growth, and housing expectations compared with September 2025, with a few modest changes.
Inflation:
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Median perceived inflation over the past 12 months remained at 3.1% for the ninth month in a row.
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Median 12-month inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.8%, while three- and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.
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Lower-income households reported slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than higher-income groups; younger respondents reported lower expectations than older groups.
Income and spending:
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Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.2%, while expected spending growth remained stable at 3.5%.
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Lower-income households showed slightly higher spending growth expectations than higher-income households.
Economic growth and labour market:
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Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became slightly less negative, rising to -1.1%.
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Expected unemployment in 12 months increased to 11.0%, with lower-income households expecting higher rates (13.2%) than higher-income households (9.4%).
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Unemployed respondents reported an increased probability of finding a job in the next three months; employed respondents expected a slightly lower probability of job loss.
Housing and credit:
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Home price growth expectations remained at 3.5%, with similar trends across income groups.
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Expected mortgage interest rates rose to 4.7%, with lower-income households expecting the highest rates (5.4%) and higher-income households the lowest (4.2%).
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The net share of households reporting tighter credit access increased, while the share of consumers applying for credit in the past three months slightly declined to 15.7%.
The next CES results will be published on 8 January 2026. The survey covers around 19,000 consumers across 11 euro area countries and provides monthly insights for policy analysis.
