The European Central Bank (ECB) released updated data from its wage tracker on 11 February 2026, covering collective bargaining agreements signed up to mid-January 2026. Forward-looking projections remain set to December 2026.
Key Findings:
-
The headline ECB wage tracker, which smooths one-off payments such as bonuses or inflation-related adjustments, indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, showing a continued moderation of wage pressures.
-
The wage tracker excluding one-off payments shows structural wage growth easing from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026.
-
The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments suggests slightly higher but still moderate negotiated wage growth: 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
Quarterly Dynamics:
-
For 2026, the headline indicator rises from 2.1% in H1 to 2.7% in H2, reflecting the diminishing effect of large one-off payments made in 2024.
-
The unsmoothed indicator signals 2.9% in H1 and 2.6% in H2, while the measure excluding one-off payments remains stable at 2.7% for both halves, indicating more moderate and uniform wage growth across euro area countries.
Coverage and Methodology:
-
The wage tracker draws on a detailed database of collective agreements from nine euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, and Finland.
-
Coverage varies by quarter and country, with 33–37% of employees represented in 2026 at the euro area aggregate level.
-
Forward-looking signals should not be interpreted as forecasts; they reflect currently available agreements and are subject to revisions as new contracts are signed.
Implications:
The ECB wage tracker indicates a gradual normalisation of negotiated wage pressures in the euro area, supporting a moderate outlook for compensation growth in 2026. This trend is consistent with broader macroeconomic projections, which suggest compensation per employee is expected to grow 3.2% in 2026 following 4.0% in 2025.
By providing timely and detailed insights into wage-setting dynamics, the wage tracker remains a key tool for assessing inflationary pressures and informing ECB policy decisions.
